Thursday, September 14, 2017

PYC - Waiting for Jose to commit itself

Jose, US Model
It is really hard to convince yourself to head south with Jose ahead of you. Add to that concern with some tracks in the US model (and Euro model) that show Jose slamming into the east coast, perhaps at Atlantic City! The ocean is getting churned up by Jose. Several apps show 5 - 8 ft waves on Monday followed by 8 - 10 ft waves on Tuesday. Wednesday shows 4 - 7 ft in the morning subsiding to 4 - 5 ft in the afternoon, all off Seaside Heights which is on the way to Atlantic City. That is just too uncertain for us.

Jose, Euro Models
If we give the ocean Thursday to settle down, we are starting to think Friday will be a good day to go down the coast. The winds are mild and the waves are predicted to be in the 2 to 3 ft range with wind less than 10 kts and with a northerly component. Of course, all of this is really a fantasy given the way weather predictions have gone recently. Nevertheless, we have to hope and maybe Friday, 9/22 will be a good day down the New Jersey coast.

Meanwhile, a couple of "yellow X's" have popped up on the National Hurricane Center site. Hopefully (there's that word again...), they will respond to the turning point of hurricane season and fade away (Ha). People that think we're due for some good luck are not familiar with how probability works! But, I can still hope.

The shoal right in the middle of the channel is growing!
Just to make things more interesting, The ICW is changing. The 9/11/2017 survey of Lockwoods Folly shows that the ICW there is once again shoaling in the channel. It was dredged last year! The route waypoints at GPX Routes (see left column) are still good for Lockwoods Folly. You take a dip route towards the inlet before turning back to the channel. Never a dull moment on the way south.

4 comments:

Unknown said...

Reading and following your posts religiously. Question-how late do you think is too late to leave? We are in Newport waiting for a window too.

Bob423 said...

Janice, that's a personal question. For us the go/no-go date is 9/30. However, there's a member of our club that left 12/1 one year. If we do leave in September, we'll be dodging hurricanes. There appears to be no letup this season. More are on the way. It's been the most active season in the last eight years!

Steadfast Sailing Travels said...

Decided today not to leave Camden Maine only to get to Connecticut and face Jose. We are glad that you're in front of us to scout out this ever-changing waterscape. Take care, Jim s/v Steadfast

Bob423 said...

Jim, it looks like 9/21 will be a good day to go down the coast given the recent movement of Jose farther east. We'll leave PYC on Tuesday, 9/19 for our two day trip down to our staging area at Atlantic Highlands.