Sunday, September 3, 2017

Hurricane Irma - Landfall predicted by US and Canadian models, Euro model a near miss

US Models are tightening on a US landfall
The US and Canadian models are showing landfall farther south than yesterday, between South Carolina and Florida. The Euro model on Windy showed landfall this morning but the afternoon update showed a near miss using the average of all predictions but there's a lot of scatter as you would expect from a storm so far out.
Canadian Models show more scatter but still a landfall

The Landfall date appears to be Sunday plus or minus one day. The most other than landfall, the most disturbing change in the last 24 hours is the prediction of intensity increasing where now about 1/2 of the models show Iram ramping up to a Cat 4 hurricane. This is a dangerous storm! More details at Tropical Tidbits.

The Euro model shows the most promise for a miss on the US mainland but there are still plenty of tracks that hit
See Weather Nerds for more details

There's a smaller, not yet formed disturbance that appears to be headed farther out from land when it approaches the US according to Windy predictions.
Most disturbing are the intensity forecasts, they have gone up in the last 24 hours
We will not move until Irma dissipates and the status of the following disturbance becomes clear.


Bob said...

Wise decision to stay put and great job summarizing the weather info in your posts. Looking forward to following your posts on yet another year's trip south. Keep up the great work!

Bob423 said...

Bob, thanks for the encouragement! The internet is flooded with weather data; often presented with the idea that more is better and it winds up being confusing. I'll continue to show the three major ensembles (US, Canadian, and Euro) long with the intensity prediction. To me they seem to be the most relevant.