Monday, September 4, 2017

Irma- All models agree, Irma will make landfall

US projections by NHC
CNC projections by Canada

The projected track keeps moving west (by Tropical Tidbits). The US and Canadian tracks have Irma moving right up the middle of Florida by Miami. The Euro model has Irma coming ashore near South Carolina. This will be a good test of Euro vs the National Hurricane Center models (GFS). However, if you look at the spread in the plots that make up the consensus for each of the three models, there is a lot of spread. Even so, all models now agree that Irma will make landfall in the US.

The Euro model shows more spread to the east but still a landfall near South Carolina
by Hurricane Nerbs
The most disturbing projection is the increase in the projected hurricane intensity to a Cat 4 which now is predicted by most models. There is a following disturbance that could turn into a tropical depression and then another hurricane but the projections show that depression moving out to sea and should not affect the US coastline - according to the models.

The most disturbing projection of all, a Cat 4 storm is predicted when Irma comes ashore
by Tropical Tidbits
We'll sit still and will start looking at a 9/17 or later departure date if the second storm stays offshore as plotted by the models. Meanwhile, we have rain and thunderstorms left over from Harvey to contend with up here for the next few days.