(Update on 9/18 at 11:31 am - Projections changed overnight, we are not leaving 9/19 as planned for a 9/21 trip down the New Jersey coast due to a big projected wind and wave increase. Now we sit and wait - full update tonight)

Jose US model, I lost faith in the Euro model after big misses on Irma

Irma drifted a little westward today but the forecast is still a go for us down the coast on 9/21 to Atlantic City. If the forecast holds, we'll leave PYC 9/19 to stage us for the jump down the coast on 9/21 from Atlantic Highlands. Nothing is certain here but so far, so good (or rather, good enough). As long as the winds are behind us and the swells have 10 sec periods or so, I'm fine for the trip.

Maria will cause a problem later, perhaps

Winds on the left, waves on the right for Thursday at 11:00 am. Not as good as yesterday's prediction but good enough
I'm fine as long as the wind is behind me and the waves are off the aft quarter

SwellInfo still good enough

Swells with 8 to 12 sec periods are fine, wind-driven waves are not.

Lastly, the NOAA coastal forecast:
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
631 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017
.THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
631 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017
.THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around
3 ft. 

Hopefully, everything holds true for the next few days.