Friday, September 15, 2017

Jose - An opening?

(Update, 9/16 at 8:20 am - the tentative opening predicted by the grib files last night appears to be widening and the NHC showed a shift of Jose's tracks to the east this morning. If that holds, we'll go down the NJ coast on Thursday, 9/21 with light winds out of the north and waves less than 2 ft. More details in today's post later tonight)

Jose, US models
There is a pot full of uncertainty in the direction of Jose. Some tracks show a landfall in New Jersey, or Eastern Long Island, or New England, or a path out to sea. Any prediction outside of three days is folly with a storm of this type. A five-day prediction is mostly a guess. For me, it's just wait and see. Grib files did show a tentative window on 9/21 for going down the New Jersery coast with light winds of 10 kts out of the north and 2 to 3 ft waves, all of which was flatly contradicted by the Euro model.
Jose, the Euro model. There's no way to sanely go down the coast with that staring at you

We will sit until Jose is out of the way. There's no future in going down the coast only to run into Jose! If 9/21 does turn out to be a good day down the coast, then we would have to know it by 9/19 since it takes us two days to get down the Hudson River to get into position at Atlantic Highlands for an early morning departure.

Meanwhile, life continues as we hosted Jane and Al Speyer on InSpeyered2 at the Poughkeepsie YC. They are headed north up the Hudson and they stayed over for a couple of days. It's always fun to meet cruising friends. We had a cookout at the club and traded stories on the cruising life.