Friday, September 8, 2017

Irma - Oh no, right over Marathon!

The US model has Irma coming across the Keys
The models now have Irma moving more westerly and the latest path takes Irma near Marathon in the Keys as a Cat 4 storm! This is very bad news. If you've ever been in Marathon you know there are lots of liveaboards that never leave the place. They have nowhere to go and I'm sure they will be aboard their boats, mandatory evacuation or not. In 155 mph winds, they will drag, it will be chaos. Key West won't do much better. I've been looking at the webcams there and there's plenty of boats in Key West Bight and also Garrison Bight. We'll see what happens.

Still a Cat 4 storm when it hits land!
The Euro and the US models have Irma hitting the Keys less than 50 miles apart. The Euro model has Irma halfway between Key West and Marathon while the US Model has Irma just to the east of Marathon. Either way, it's going to be a devastating storm for the Keys.

Here's the Euro model prediction

I just hope my slip, E14, is still there in February! There are still foolish people still in Key West, we can see them walking around on the webcams that are still operational.  Nobody alive today has ever had experience with a Cat 4 storm in the Keys. The ones remaining will learn - if they survive. The graphics to the right and below are runs from Windy on the Euro and US models. Both show a direct hit on the Keys.

Now for the US model prediction, not much difference

Jose is meandering around south of Bermuda and it's troubling that the Euro model doesn't show much movement to the east like the US model does. I want Jose out of the way before I move south. Our luck continues on not having any more disturbances come off the coast of Africa. With that, if Jose behaves, then we should be okay for the trip south.
I just hope Jose follows the US model, the Euro model shows it lingering, drifting west