Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Irma - Miami and then Savannah landfalls

The Windy playback of the US prediction has Irma grazing Miami before slamming into Savannah
Both the Euro and US models show Irma hitting Miami squarely, bouncing back to sea and then making landfall again at Savannah. The tracks predictions have been moving easterly over the last two days. The Keys may yet escape the worst of the storm. The live cams of the Keys show a ghost town.

Irma is predicted to degrade to "only a Cat 4" storm when hitting Miami and then Savannah. 
Jose appears not to be a problem. All models show it making a right angle turn to the north and heading for Bermuda or even a little east of the island. There is still no activity off the coast of Africa according to the National Hurricane Center but both the Euro and US models show a disturbance coming off Africa around 9/15 or so that could develop into a tropical storm. Hopefully, that storm will follow Jose into the open Atlantic if it develops.

Jose is projected not to be a problem although we may see some swells from the storm
With all that info, it appears that we will wait until Irma runs itself out and then look for calm weather before heading down the coast sometime around 9/15. We usually wait for calmer weather than most cruisers for the trip down the New Jersey coast so we may linger until we find it, stay tuned.


Mary Minard said...

When I got your book last year, I thought, "Ok, I'm all set for the ICW!" Good thing you are such a good communicator.
I just got your 2017 book from amazon. Looks like a rerun; will definitely look for your comments!

Bob423 said...

Mary, most of the ICW does remain the same but the devil is in the details. All of the charts have been redone with better resolution and there are added charts such as on page 70 and 71. The coverage of the Virginia Cut is new with the 2017 issue. There are several shallow areas to avoid along that route. The coverage of the crossovers on page 99 is new. Many cruisers find this section of the ICW where it splits between going to Morehead City and Beaufort confusing so I included a chart to show how to proceed along with a recommendation on visiting the Homer Smith marina in Beaufort (last year he gave out free shrimp, ice, and had a courtesy car). All of the inlet crossings have been updated with the latest ACOE surveys along with their recommended waypoints. Pay particular attention to New River Inlet on page 107, there's a jog in the path to avoid a 4 ft area at low tide. The shoal at Masonboro by G135 (on page 113) shows a route around the 5 ft shallow spot in the middle of the channel. The Myrle Grove shoal at MM292 is a false alarm on Active Captain, I show the ACOE survey of that area on page 114. Lockwoods Folly is shoaling in and the ACOE recommended a new route through the area. I show the survey and the new route on page 120.

The shoals by Minim Island are moving and there is a 4 ft spot right in the middle of the channel as shown on page 130. Unfortunately, there's not much to be done for McClellanville but I show the updated surveys on pages 132 - 135. The route though the Graham Creek shoal by R64 is new. You have to favor the red side and then swing over to the green side by R64, I show the details on page 137. I show a new route through the Dawho River shallows on page 146 for 5.6 MLW. There's a new route recommended through the Ashepoo-Coosaw cutoff on page 150 for 7.3 MLW. There's a new recommended route by the shoaling in Atlamaha Sound by G208 for 20 MLW. If you followed the magenta line through here you would go aground. You can also avoid a shoal in Buttermilk Sound by R220 by favoring the red side as shown on page 166. The Jekyll Creek passage has been updated for a 5.7 MLW route. An updated chart for Matanzas inlet has been included showing the positions of all the buoys after dredging. A new route through New Smyrna Beach was recommended, there's a new shoal on the ICW route there. I included a map of the moor placements at Vero Beach. They always give me a number and then I have to search. Now there's a map to help find your mooring. I also included a chart of the anchorage area north of the moorings, there's plent of depth - I sounded the area in my dinghy and made a chart on page 200. I also included a chart I made of the anchorage area in Marathon for help in finding deep water. There's more room there than the NOAA charts indicate.

None of the above information is in the 2016 guide. In all, it was about 100 hours of work but you have a point. If I could find a way to publish the guide in a three ring binder, then I could just issue the updated pages? That would throw off the page numbering but it's an idea.

As always, I'll provide updates to what I find in the blog and on Active Captain but they can't be as detailed as in the guide since AC doesn't allow attached charts.

Good to hear from you! Have fun and stay safe.