Saturday, September 2, 2017

Models are converging on landfall in North Carolina for Irma around 9/10-11

The ensemble of US models
The models have dramatically converged today and are now in agreement on Irma impacting the east coast. A little background, there are two major ensembles of models used to predict the path of a hurricane this far out. One collection is based on the US models and another one based on models used by the Canadian weather service. Yesterday and this morning, they did not agree on Irma making landfall. The US model had Irma coming to shore at North Carolina but the Canadian model had Irma veering off to the northeast and out to sea. As of this afternoon, they now both agree that Irma will come ashore, most likely, at North Carolina. There is still a very wide spread in the predicted path but now they all show a landfall. Of course things can and will change but it's a little scary now that they all agree.

The ensemble of models run by Canada. This morning they showed Irma going out to sea.
Just to add to the tense situation, the predicted strength of Irma keeps inching upward. Irma is projected to be a Category 3 hurricane but about 1/4 of the models show an increase to Category 4 at landfall. This could be a very dangerous storm. Needless to say, we will stay at the Poughkeepsie YC until things sort themselves out. We rode out a Category 1 (Matthew) at St James Plantation last year as the eye passed over us and that was not fun! Category 3 (or 4!) is an entirely other matter.

More of the models in the ensemble show a Cat 4 storm at landfall compared to this morning 

I'll be increasing the frequency of my posts as the conditions change. We will certainly let Irma pass before considering venturing down the coast but we're mindful of another disturbance (NOAA's term) coming off the African coast with a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression in five days.

I could use a little less excitement this fall.


Dawn R said...

Gertie's home base is Atlantic Highlands, we are looking for 1st weather window after 9/15. Watching Irma she may have other plans for us....