Saturday, September 16, 2017

Looks like Thursday, 9/21, down the New Jersey coast

Jose US model - farther to the east now
Data from Tropical Tidbits
The projected path of Jose has changed dramatically in the last 24 hours. The path is now predicted to be farther to the east with less effect on the coast. Both the US and Euro models have come into better agreement.

This shows all three storms, from Cyclocane - using US model

Even so, there are two other storms that could affect us on the way south, Maria and Lee. Maria could be a problem if it continues to develop but Lee appears to be headed more to the east. We will take the window afforded by the more easterly course of Jose and get down the coast.

VentuSky has a nice presentation of US model data on wind and waves.

The left chart shows the wind in kts, the right shows wave heights in ft
Both show direction with streaks
The data (based on the US model) above are for Thursday 9/21 at 11:00 am. It doesn't vary much all day. In fact, it looks like we can continue on our way Friday to Cape May and then up the Chesapeake on Saturday with a light wind from the east or southeast and a following tide. We would aim for Chesapeake City and then relook at Maria and Lee.
This is the Thursday forecast for Seaside Heights, about 1/2 way down the
New Jersey coast on the way to Atlantic City - looks good
The forecast is from SwellInfo which I've found to be very accurate close to shore

We plan on getting on Fleetwing Monday and take one last look at the weather Tuesday morning before committing ourselves. The plan would be for Tuesday night at Haverstraw, Wednesday night at Atlantic Highlands with an early morning departure on Thursday for Atlantic City. At least that's the fantasy. It would be nice if it really came true - so far that's what's predicted by the US model so we can hope.

Just to put topping on the forecasts, here's the National Weather Service coastal forecast for two areas along the way:

Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm
THU...N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or

Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
.THU...NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around
3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.

What could possibly go wrong?