Monday, September 18, 2017

Jose, Maria - I'm tired of being a weatherman

This morning, Jose was returning to the New Jersey coast!
This morning the forecasts turned much direr. The winds were up along the coast on Thursday and even getting down the Hudson River would have been problematic with 30 kts winds against the tide. With all that input, we decided to cancel our 9/19 departure date from PYC. Then, of course, everything changed once again. Jose wandered farther east which made all the difference in the impacted forecast for the New Jersey shore. What you see in this summary is the 5:00 pm status of the predictions for Jose, not the much worse tracks of this morning. Perhaps we could have gone but then we may have been stuck in Atlantic City for several days, who knows?
Where or where is Maria going??  Curving out to sea, we hope. Lee appears not to be a threat.

So now we're in a waiting period again and our next checkpoint is after Jose leaves the area; sometime around Saturday, we hope. Nothing is certain anymore and nothing is like the previous years that from our present perspective seem to be child's play although at the time we were on pins and needles. 
The Wind on the left, waves on the right - this is a much better forecast than this morning's. Too late now. 
Likewise for theSwellInfo forecast close to shore

Of course, there's Maria waiting in the wings for her try at disrupting our plans. The models either have her going out to sea (Euro) or impacting North Carolina out banks (US). Anyone for flipping a coin?

Don't forget the Coastal Forecast from NOAA, much better with a forecast of Jose going farther which only came in this afternoon.

Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
614 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017
.THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 

Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-614 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017
THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to
5 ft.


Unknown said...

Playing the waiting game here in Newport too. Obsession is stripped of all canvas, sails wrapped tightly, sitting out the next 2 days on her mooring while we cool our heels in a timeshare. Watching and waiting.

Bob423 said...

Janice, I know how you feel. I've never seen such a hurricane. It already did a circle farther south, lazying along and now it's going to do another circle as if it had all the time in the world - no hurry at all. What a pain in the rear. We have everything packed and ready to go but we need a window. We had the eye of Matthew pass over us last year in St James Plantation in North Carolina. We too stripped all canvass but we also took down the jib. The mainsail rolls up into the mast so we left that be. Waiting, waiting.....