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| Just a dreary day (the bird is flying backwards) |
We are just hanging out waiting for something other than 20 kts winds on the nose with rain. The weather is predicted to worsen over the next two days with nothing but rain all day on Monday, oh joy. On Tuesday we have another disparity forecast between all the apps vs PredictWind. Once again, PredictWind is showing high winds on Tuesday when the rest of the apps are predicting winds in the 10 kt range or less. Given my last experience where everyone was wrong except PredictWind, I'm a little concerned. At least the direction is on the aft quarter so it's not on the nose like last time.
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| One response to the weather is just to pretend to be an RV |
Meanwhile, we did laundry and had a pump out which is free at Titusville twice a week. Ann is organizing a "High Wind Party" Monday night to celebrate our leaving Titusville and continuing our northward trip the next day. She's out recruiting attendees tonight while I do the blog. Monday evening is also when we're due for heavy rain along with the high winds, a double helping of Florida "sunshine". The party is also a sign that we are fully recovered from our chest colds. It "only" took two weeks.
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| This is a sunset?! NOT |
We plan on reaching Daytona on Tuesday night and St Augustine on Wednesday but only for one night since we really have to get going. We are so late this year.
6 comments:
Hi Bob423,
We are sitting in Melbourne, FL, a little South of your location. All weather apps that we checked showed rain, thunderstorms and crazy winds for today and through Tuesday. We only got wind throughout the day. Rain started at 9 pm. Melbourne Yacht Club even managed to pull out a Small Boat Regatta today! We are looking to start our way North on Wednesday, after all the thunderstorms are over. Looking forward to your comments being ahead of us!
Natalia
Natalia, this weather is for the birds! We’ve encountered nothing but delays on our trip north that started with over a week's wait for the Southern Blvd Bridge and now this, thunderstorms. We were really looking forward to leaving Tuesday, we’ll see.
Hi Bob and Ann-
I usually use Windy and Windfinder but have just downloaded Predict Wind to try out. Which weather model do you use? I assume it’s either the PWG or PWE? We’re hoping to hop off shore from St Augustine to St Mary’s on Tuesday. Wish we could attend your High Wind Party, sounds like fun!
Laura
Laura, Ann and I both wish you could make the party! I have five apps I’m trying out against each other. SwellInfo, PocketGrib, Windy, Ventusky, and PredictWind along with the NOAA coastal forecast.
SwellInfo doesn’t have choices of the model and it was developed for surfers and so is concerned with close-in wind and waves. I always check with SwellInfo before doing a coastal cruise. PocketGrib is a very simple app based on the GFS model. Wildly is very popular and has a choice of models. I used the European model ECMWF which has the best reputation on accuracy. It’s supposed to be better than GFS, the American model. For Ventusky, I use the automatic setting which is close to the GFS model. For PredictWind, I use PWE which is based on the ECMWF European model but with their own modifications learned from America's Cup racing (according to them).
The PWE can give very different results from the ECMWF model it’s based on. I am presently seeing that in the Tuesday and Wednesday forecasts for wind, along the lines of 23 kts vs less than 10 kts by the other apps. It’s going to be another round of testing on Tuesday or Wednesday to see who’s right.
The last time I checked, PredictWind was free for downloading and I think you got a free trial period but after that it was $28.99/year which is the most expensive of all the apps. Whether it’s worth that or not depends upon its accuracy. For me, I’m willing to pay to see how well it does. It was certainly right that one day coming up from Rodriguez Key to Miami. Whether that accuracy continues is the subject of my tests. My first article will be published in Waterway Guide next week.
(God, am I wordy....)
Hi Bob, thanks for the thorough reply! I’ll definitely pay attention to the PWE model in PredictWind. Interestingly, we’ve noticed that in the past several weeks, especially these past few days, the GFS model has been more accurate than ECMWF. We’ve been surprised as it’s usually the opposite. We will, of course, weigh all of these factors as we prepare for our Tuesday departure. It’s disconcerting when the various models don’t come closer together even within two or three days of the forecast. I guess that's what makes the cruising life interesting, right? I’m looking forward to reading your Waterway article next week.
Thanks,
Laura
Laura, for a good local weather prediction, try https://darksky.net/ It has a lot of good features and is pretty accurate, it’s free too.
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