Monday, September 17, 2018

PYC - Planning to leave Thursday - Oh those forecasts

Well, what forecast would you like?  How about light winds out of the north for the trip south to Atlantic City? No problem. Just look at the PredictWind forecast using the US model (GFS)

Looks pretty good does it? Nice ride down the coast with light winds out of the north. Would you rather have more of a push southward with stronger north winds? We can do that too! Just look at the Euro forecast from Windy.

Well, not as nice but kinda okay. Would you rather have some wind in your face to cool the temperature, no problem. Look at the PredictWind tweak on the Euro model.

Perhaps that's not enough wind to cool your face, how about a little more? Here's the PredictWind tweak on the GFS model.

Confused? How about SwellInfo?

No surprise here since it's based on the GFS (US) model without any tweaks. Lastly, let's look at the NOAA coastal forecast.

It's based on the GFS model so it follows the forecasts based on that model. So take your pick, light winds out of the north, a little heavier winds out of the north, light winds out of the southwest, or heavier winds out of the southwest. All bases are covered! Something is going to be right. It reminds me of the stock trader that claims to have predicted every downturn in the market - which sounds impressive until you learn that he predicted a downturn on every single day!  Can't miss with that strategy. No matter what happens Saturday, one forecast or the other has it right! 

Regardless, we're leaving PYC on Thursday to make Atlantic Highlands on Friday. We are hoping that our version of the forecast (light north winds) turns out to be the one the Gods favor. Let's roll the dice and find out!