Irma and Jose - plus what's new in 2017 ICW Cruising Guide

Look out South Carolina (after walloping Miami)

Jose heads out to sea, we hope

First, let's get the hurricanes out of the way. Irma may graze Miami before returning to the sea and head for South Carolina near Savannah. Jose looks like it will turn out to sea and there's nothing yet new off the coast of Africa. With that, September 16th to 18th is starting to look okay. Irma should be past us by then (up north) and Jose should be somewhere by Bermuda or farther east. Then it's local weather off the coast of New Jersey to examine. Time will tell.

Now on to a note I received from a buyer of the 2017 ICW Cruising Guide, with the impression it was just a redo of the 2016 version. That let me to thinking that I didn't do a very good job of highlighting the many differences and adds to the 2017 edition. Now it is true that most of the ICW doesn't go through a wholesale change from year to year but the devil is in the details. Some examples are below:

 All of the charts have been redone with better resolution and there are added charts. The coverage of the Virginia Cut is new with the 2017 issue. There are several shallow areas to avoid along that route as shown on pages 85-91. The coverage of the Crossovers on page 99 is new. Many cruisers find this section of the ICW where it splits between going to Morehead City and Beaufort confusing, so I included a chart to show how to proceed along with a recommendation on visiting the Homer Smith marina in Beaufort (last year he gave out free shrimp, ice, and had a courtesy car).

All of the inlet crossings have been updated with the latest ACOE surveys along with their recommended waypoints. The ebook version (free if you buy the book) has active links to the latest surveys by the ACOE so you can have easy access to the most current chart on your iPad or Kindle. Pay particular attention to the New River Inlet on page 107, there's a jog in the path to avoid a 4 ft area at low tide in the channel. The shoal at Masonboro by G135 on page 113 shows a route around the 5 ft shallow spot in the middle of the channel. The Myrle Grove shoal at MM292 is a false alarm on Active Captain, I show the ACOE survey of that area on page 114. Lockwoods Folly is shoaling in and the ACOE recommended a new route through the area. I show the survey and the new route on page 120.

Our resident bald eagle at the Poughkeepsie YC
He's watching us, we're watching Irma

The shoals by Minim Island are moving and there is a 4 ft spot right in the middle of the channel as shown on page 130. Unfortunately, there's not much to be done for McClellanville but I show the updated surveys on pages 132 - 135. The route through the Graham Creek shoal by R64 is new. You have to favor the red side and then swing over to the green side by R64, I show the details on page 137. I show a new route through the Dawho River shallows on page 146 for 5.6 MLW. There's a new route recommended through the Ashepoo-Coosaw cutoff on page 150 for 5.9 MLW. Be sure to favor the green side in Brickyard Creek by R210, see page 151. There's a new recommended route by the shoaling in Atlamaha Sound by G208 for 20 MLW, see page 165. If you followed the magenta line through here you would go aground. You can also avoid a shoal in Buttermilk Sound by R220 by favoring the red side as shown on page 166. The Jekyll Creek passage has been updated for a 5.7 MLW route. An updated chart for Matanzas inlet has been included showing the positions of all the buoys after dredging, see page 189. A new route through New Smyrna Beach was recommended; there's a new shoal on the ICW route there, see page 194. I included a map of the mooring placements at Vero Beach. They always give me a number and then I have to search. Now there's a map to help find your mooring. I also included a chart of the anchorage area north of the moorings, there's plenty of depth - I sounded the area in my dinghy and made a chart on page 200. I also included a chart I made of the anchorage area in Marathon for help in finding deep water on page 214. There's more room there than the NOAA charts indicate. I've skipped over many other improvements so as not to bore you too much.

None of the above information is in the 2016 guide. In all, it was about 100 hours of work. I figure I earn about $2.00/hour at this rate before taxes. If you want to get rich, don't take up publishing guides! Still, I think Amazon makes out okay. It's a publish on demand business; there is no inventory. I will continue updating my blog on what I find as Ann and I go down the ICW and also on Active Captain. The problem with AC is that there is no way to show charts with a line drawn for the best path like I have in the guide and favoring the red or green side only works if everyone uses the same charts. The NOAA ENC charts are the most widely used. Unfortunately, Garmin and Navionics charts are different enough from ENC to pose problems in some area. At least the Navionics iPad app gives the user an option to load "Govt charts" which are the ENC charts downloaded from NOAA.

We have a goal this year of recording all bridge heights, corrected to MLW. I never know what to make of a measurement corrected to high tide (there is a range of high tides, which one to use?) However, if you know the height of the bridge per the height boards at low tide, then you can refer to a tide table and figure out the vertical clearance but only after also including an offset for water level above or below normal. I cover these calculations on pages 24-27 with water level monitoring stations listed (again, the ebook has active links to the stations). These stations are not tide stations. They measure the actual water depth and give you a plus or minus relative to the predicted tide. The stations are all up and down the east coast but most cruisers don't know of them. For bridge clearance, you have to know both, the tide level and the water level plus or minus to the calculated tide. To my knowledge, nobody has put this information together for the ICW yet.

If you have recommendations on how the guide can be improved, please let me know. I've thought about breaking the guide into two books: One for the ICW Tips and one for the charts showing how to navigate the shallow spots. Another suggestion would be to publish the guide in three-ring binder format. Each guide year could just be updated pages that the user could insert in the appropriate spot in the binder (I don't know of any publisher that offers this option yet). That may be a little awkward but it might work for some. All suggestions are welcomed.

Meanwhile, we'll continue watching Irma and Jose. We're not moving until Irma goes out to sea and Jose shows a clear direction to the east.

Irma - Miami and then Savannah landfalls

The Windy playback of the US prediction has Irma grazing Miami before slamming into Savannah

Both the Euro and US models show Irma hitting Miami squarely, bouncing back to sea and then making landfall again at Savannah. The tracks predictions have been moving easterly over the last two days. The Keys may yet escape the worst of the storm. The live cams of the Keys show a ghost town.

Irma is predicted to degrade to "only a Cat 4" storm when hitting Miami and then Savannah. 

Jose appears not to be a problem. All models show it making a right angle turn to the north and heading for Bermuda or even a little east of the island. There is still no activity off the coast of Africa according to the National Hurricane Center but both the Euro and US models show a disturbance coming off Africa around 9/15 or so that could develop into a tropical storm. Hopefully, that storm will follow Jose into the open Atlantic if it develops.

Jose is projected not to be a problem although we may see some swells from the storm

With all that info, it appears that we will wait until Irma runs itself out and then look for calm weather before heading down the coast sometime around 9/15. We usually wait for calmer weather than most cruisers for the trip down the New Jersey coast so we may linger until we find it, stay tuned.

Irma - Landing somewhere in Florida

The official forecast - right over Key West! Look at the wind strength, 185 mph!!

We like to spend February and March in Key West. The weather is nice and there're great places to eat and it's good for walking around for exercise. However, one of the models  (NHC) shows a direct hit on our favorite place to stay over winter! Now, Key West is not very high with the absolute highest peak being 18 ft! Most of Key West is far below that peak. Of course, we're concerned about the residents of Key West but we're also concerned about losing our winter home. We've taken over E14 for the last seven years and are looking forward to another year at that location, provided it's still there.

On the other hand, right up the middle of Florida?

So with that preamble, we take an intense interest in the path of Irma. Several of the models show Irma ripping straight up the middle of Florida but the NHC shows a Key West landfall. Adding to the suspense is the upgrading of the storm to a Cat 5 level although the latest projections show a weakening just before landfall down to a Cat 4 - if you can call that weakening.

Irma has shown some weakening since the last forecast (if you can call Cat 4 weaker)

The storm behind Irma now has a name, Jose. The models suggest that Jose will turn to the north and pass by Bermuda and so will be no danger to the continental US. If that remains the case, it might provide a window to get down the coast. So far, there's been no further developments off the coast of Africa. May it remain so.

Jose, out to sea?

Boat preparations remain apace. We have new vinyl glass, new batteries, new anchor chain (rust on the old chain), repairs to the water tank, three replacement thru-hulls, oil and fuel filter changes, and probably some things I've forgotten what with Irma occupying so much time. The dinghy still needs attention, it's 12 years old but still going strong although it does seep air a bit. Now it's watch and wait, it's been an active hurricane season!

Irma- All models agree, Irma will make landfall

US projections by NHC

CNC projections by Canada

The projected track keeps moving west (by Tropical Tidbits). The US and Canadian tracks have Irma moving right up the middle of Florida by Miami. The Euro model has Irma coming ashore near South Carolina. This will be a good test of Euro vs the National Hurricane Center models (GFS). However, if you look at the spread in the plots that make up the consensus for each of the three models, there is a lot of spread. Even so, all models now agree that Irma will make landfall in the US.

The Euro model shows more spread to the east but still a landfall near South Carolina
by Hurricane Nerbs

The most disturbing projection is the increase in the projected hurricane intensity to a Cat 4 which now is predicted by most models. There is a following disturbance that could turn into a tropical depression and then another hurricane but the projections show that depression moving out to sea and should not affect the US coastline - according to the models.

The most disturbing projection of all, a Cat 4 storm is predicted when Irma comes ashore
by Tropical Tidbits

We'll sit still and will start looking at a 9/17 or later departure date if the second storm stays offshore as plotted by the models. Meanwhile, we have rain and thunderstorms left over from Harvey to contend with up here for the next few days.

Hurricane Irma - Landfall predicted by US and Canadian models, Euro model a near miss

US Models are tightening on a US landfall

The US and Canadian models are showing landfall farther south than yesterday, between South Carolina and Florida. The Euro model on Windy showed landfall this morning but the afternoon update showed a near miss using the average of all predictions but there's a lot of scatter as you would expect from a storm so far out.

Canadian Models show more scatter but still a landfall

The Landfall date appears to be Sunday plus or minus one day. The most other than landfall, the most disturbing change in the last 24 hours is the prediction of intensity increasing where now about 1/2 of the models show Iram ramping up to a Cat 4 hurricane. This is a dangerous storm! More details at Tropical Tidbits.

The Euro model shows the most promise for a miss on the US mainland but there are still plenty of tracks that hit
See Weather Nerds for more details

There's a smaller, not yet formed disturbance that appears to be headed farther out from land when it approaches the US according to Windy predictions.

Most disturbing are the intensity forecasts, they have gone up in the last 24 hours

We will not move until Irma dissipates and the status of the following disturbance becomes clear.

Models are converging on landfall in North Carolina for Irma around 9/10-11

The ensemble of US models

The models have dramatically converged today and are now in agreement on Irma impacting the east coast. A little background, there are two major ensembles of models used to predict the path of a hurricane this far out. One collection is based on the US models and another one based on models used by the Canadian weather service. Yesterday and this morning, they did not agree on Irma making landfall. The US model had Irma coming to shore at North Carolina but the Canadian model had Irma veering off to the northeast and out to sea. As of this afternoon, they now both agree that Irma will come ashore, most likely, at North Carolina. There is still a very wide spread in the predicted path but now they all show a landfall. Of course things can and will change but it's a little scary now that they all agree.

The ensemble of models run by Canada. This morning they showed Irma going out to sea.

Just to add to the tense situation, the predicted strength of Irma keeps inching upward. Irma is projected to be a Category 3 hurricane but about 1/4 of the models show an increase to Category 4 at landfall. This could be a very dangerous storm. Needless to say, we will stay at the Poughkeepsie YC until things sort themselves out. We rode out a Category 1 (Matthew) at St James Plantation last year as the eye passed over us and that was not fun! Category 3 (or 4!) is an entirely other matter.

More of the models in the ensemble show a Cat 4 storm at landfall compared to this morning 

I'll be increasing the frequency of my posts as the conditions change. We will certainly let Irma pass before considering venturing down the coast but we're mindful of another disturbance (NOAA's term) coming off the African coast with a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression in five days.

I could use a little less excitement this fall.

Oh no, Irma

(If you don't see the map, click here and pan down to the path predictions)

This is NOT supposed to happen when I want to move south! The Atlantic is the busiest I've seen in seven years of cruising down the ICW. Last year I weathered Matthew at St James Plantation near Beaufort, NC, as the eye passed directly over us. We were okay but I wouldn't recommend the experience.

The above graphic is from Hurricane Tracker. The path is very uncertain but the bad news is that all the models predict a landfall on the east coast - right in our path south! And, there's another one headed our way off the coast of Africa. Fleetwing is ready and we're hopeful for a two day window to speed down the New Jersey coast. We had intended leaving 9/11 to take advantage of favorable tides up the Delaware but the weather is boss. I'll restart the blog to focus on the weather window - or lack thereof. The above graphic puts Irma on the East Coast 9/10, right in the middle of our intended departure!