Thursday, September 6, 2018

Hurricane Problems

Florence is just not looking good. The first graph shows all the various predictions all at once where each plot is the best guess for that particular model (listed at the top). The orange triangle is the ECMF model, a European output that has a good track record. The red plot is the NHC predicted track but doesn't go out as far as the others. The purple tracks are from the GFS model, the US model. The reason for all the spread is a low-pressure trough north of Florence that may (or may not) attract Florence northward, away from the US. If that doesn't happen over the next few days, then right behind the low-pressure trough is a high-pressure ridge that will push Florence westward into the coastal US. The track of Florence is on a knife-edge, it could go either way. The US models predict that the low-pressure trough will win out, the European models predict it will fail to attract Florence north and the high-pressure ridge due to come off the coast after the low-pressure trough will win out. There are two graphs shown. The first one is the central prediction of each model. The second one (with all the faint lines) shows the ensembles (the same models but will slight plus and minus on various starting conditions). You'll see a lot of faint lines, anyone of each could be the real track. Each faint line is a potential track from the ensemble from all the models.


Bob Norton said...

Bob, heard on 880AM out of NYC this afternoon, the Hudson closed to marine traffic at the old Tappan Zee Bridge. What's up with that and what's the time frame so you can get through when there's a weather window. Best wishes as always, looking forward to your getting moving, but only when it's safe to do so.