Sunday, September 24, 2017

Down the coast on Saturday or Sunday (9/30 or 10/1)


Maria US model has Maria off the coast of North Carolina

The Marina Euro model has Maria farther west, much closer to North Carolina
Which to believe?

Wind and waves on Saturday, US model
A prediction for surf for Atlantic City, the waves are going down
From Stormsurfing.com

So far the coast looks good for a Saturday run down to Atlantic City. It's not ideal since there are still swells running around 4 ft but they are out of the east and will be off the beam on the way down. However, the roughest part of the trip will be rounding Sandy Hook since the tide will be against the waves early in the morning (slack is around 5:00 am).  Once we make the turn south, all things should be better (does that sound like "famous last words??")

The US and Euro models do not agree on the amount of wind for Saturday or Sunday. The Euro shows less wind but yesterday the Euro model showed more wind. The forecast for the weekend is still uncertain but one of the two days ought to be good enough. The winds remain with a northerly component. We will be at the Atlantic Highlands anchorage Friday night to be ready for a Saturday run down the coast if the forecast doesn't get any worse.

9/6/2017 survey of Shallotte - shoaling once again!

Meanwhile, the inlets down south keep shoaling in. The newest victim is Shallotte Inlet. It was just dredged in the spring but it's shoaling in again. The Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE) provided a new set of waypoints to avoid the shoaling and I included them in the GPX Routes page under BShallotte Inlet. You can see the latest surveys and a list of waypoints at ACOE Surveys of Inlets. We need to get down south in a hurry before more inlets shoal even more.

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Maria - Keeps drifting to the west


A kiss to North Carolina - then bye, bye?

Maria is testing us. She keeps moving farther to the west with every update, just to keep us on our toes. When is this ever going to stop! In reading all the reports, it appears that the conditions are very favorable for yet another storm developing in the Caribbean in the next two weeks (warm waters, no shear). I want to get down the coast before that happens.

Even though the Maria forecasts keep pushing her to the west for a touch and go with North Carolina, she is still predicted to quickly leave the area after that kiss (both the US and Euro models at least agree on that much).
At last, we are starting to see a decrease in wave action as Maria goes out to sea

So with all that, Saturday is looking like the first possible day for us going down the New Jersey coast with swells in the 2-4 ft range. Still a little high and the winds are a little too strong at 17 kts but at least out of the north. That may be doable for us, we'll wait and see. Sunday may be better to give the seas more of a chance to calm down. However, we don't want to wait long enough for yet another storm to develop and head north!
This is a service we've used for many years. It's a good, graphical representation of wave action close to shore
It shows surf height (left scale), swell height (left scale) and period (right scale). The little arrows at the top show
swell direction. See StormSurf

 I've added another chart. When we first started our ICW adventures, we always looked at Stormsurfing.com for waves hitting the coast. We figured if the waves were small, then the area close to shore was less impacted too. It has served us well for many years but we've also used SwellInfo too which you also see here. All of these models are very sophisticated. They involve measuring the distance to storms, their wind speed, and direction, timing the arrival of swells, etc. They used to boast that the surfer could swim off the beach, wait, and then the swell would arrive as predicted, right on time for a good surf. Let's all hope the surfers aren't disappointed but Maria still moves out to sea as predicted

Friday, September 22, 2017

Saturday or Sunday of next week? (9/30 or 10/1)


Jose just slowly dies - US Model

The waves are just too big for our liking. It may be okay for some but not for us, we like calmer conditions. Jose is slowly dying with the emphasis on "slowly." Nevertheless, he's still stirring up the Atlantic and coastal New Jersey. The only good conditions slightly visible on the horizon is for 9/30 and 10/1. The only problem is that it's always maƱana. When the anticipated day arrives, there's always another problem.
Maria is just a little closer to North Carolina in the track prediction

If the promised day arrives in view, we'll leave PYC on Friday to make the run down the coast on 10/1, Sunday. It is still far too early to make such plans but we can hope. The forecasted track for Maria keeps inching westward with every update! Every forecast keeps moving it just a little in the wrong direction. They all still have Maria rushing out to sea when reaching east of the coast of North Carolina but we would all feel better if it stayed farther away.
Just too much wind and waves for us

We continue on pins and needles!


Thursday, September 21, 2017

Jose - Hanging around but weakening

The NHC projection shows Jose slowly dying and perhaps eventually moving to the east

It looks like Jose will gradually fade away but in the meantime, it will continue to stir up the seas. A trip down the coast looks doable as far as wind is concerned from Friday Monday but you have to contend with large swells in the 4 to 7 ft range, depending on the day. On the other hand, the swells have a period of at least 10 sec and up to 14 seconds. At that rate, it's up and down but not breaking.
Maria is still projected to go out to sea

Friday through Monday actually have good winds out of the north but the seas
are still running large - although with 10 to 15 sec periods
The winds pipe up again on Tuesday and Wednesday due to Maria

For us up here in Poughkeepsie YC, it's still too much and we'll sit the weather out until Maria passes by on Thursday. After that, it's the normal October weather to contend with. We are tentatively aiming for a trip down the New Jersey coast on Saturday, 9/30. By that time the seas should have subsided and the winds normal for that time of the year out of the north. This has been a terrible year for waiting!


Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Jose - This is insane

Jose, US model - To The Coast! Want to try passing through that path?
Actually, the NJ coast kinda looks doable on Thursday but you would have to go
through Jose to get there unless you hugged the coast. Wind on the left, waves on the right. 

Thursday coastal forecast, not calm but you're being chased by Jose

So Jose is not satisfied in blocking all southern traffic, it's now going to continue doing that for the next few days and just for good measure, coast over to New Jersey to pay a visit there too! If you want to go south now, it's going to be through tropical storm weather. We are staying put until everything clears out, hopefully, that will be before Oct 4th, our new no-fly date.

Meanwhile, Maria is coming, a few outliers have it hitting land but at least
it's moving fast
The guidance for Maria is that it will rapidly move up the coast, not make landfall, and then go out to sea without lingering like Jose. At least that's the fantasy of the moment. We'll see what reality has to say about that. It is really hard to concentrate on doing anything with Jose and Maria hanging over us. I'm sure there are a lot of cruisers in the same boat as us but it's still frustrating!

Meanwhile, I'm working with AquaMap on enhancements to their app for better use in the US. I'm in almost daily contact with their development staff in Italy to add features of value to the cruisers of the ICW. They use NOAA ENC charts which is a big plus along with Active Captain markers so it's a good start. They also have unlimited routes that can be imported via the iPad interface to Google Drive. For good measure, their charts throw in the surrounding roads maps as well as topo charts as part of their bundle. One feature I've always taken for granted that I now find is far from standard is the display of an ETA for each waypoint in a route. I thought that was standard since my ancient Garmin 492 chartplotter does just that. It's invaluable in seeing when you'll arrive at a bridge in time for an opening. As you know, the ICW wanders a bit so a direct waypoint to the bridge will not work.  One must put in a route with all the turns and then highlight the one waypoint at a bridge where you need it to open. Having an ETA for that bridge waypoint helps in adjusting your time to arrive just when it's ready to open and not having the do donuts in a narrow channel while waiting. The Garmin 492 has this capability but Garmin told me that none of their present chartplotters do. I got the same reply when I queried several iPad app programmers. What an oversight! AquaMap will install this capability in their next release plus a few other changes I requested. I'll keep the blog updated with their progress. It's something to do while waiting for a window.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Hurricanes and Useful Links

Same old, same old. Jose continues to wear out its invitation
It looks like we're not moving until nearly the first of October. Our no-fly date is 10/1, after that we'll hang it up for the season if there's no opening south. We are hopeful that the hurricanes will pass by without yet another one to take their place.
And here comes Maria!

Thurday still looks like a small opening for a fast boat but not for Fleetwing. You would really want to get all the way down the coast and up the Delaware Bay to be safe. We're passing by that opportunity.
Thursday kind of looks okay still but only for a fast boat

Typical weather buoy info
Meanwhile, there are other things to get ready. I've been working on useful internet links while going south. When traveling down the ICW, it's handy to have internet links to certain, key information. For example, You're in a secure harbor and the wind is mild at 5 to 10 kts but the forecast out in the Chesapeake is for 20 to 30 kt winds! You may think that the weatherman was being overly cautious and venture out anyway. However, the closer you get to the Chesapeake from your anchorage (several miles back), you notice the wind starting to pick up. Preparing to make the turn to head down the bay, you clock the wind at 25 kts and the waves at 3 to 4 ft! This was what the weatherman predicted but not what was expected based on conditions in an anchorage 5 miles back. This exact scenario happened to Ann and me one year while waiting for a break in the weather. Furthermore, we weren't the only ones. At least five other boats did the exact same thing and returned to the anchorage to await a better day. We should have accessed a weather buoy out in the bay and found the true wind speed but it wasn't convenient and we didn't think we had to at the time. Since then I compiled a list of weather buoys all along the route we take from New York to Key West and have them as Bookmarks in Google Chrome for quick and easy access. This afternoon, I also listed them as active links in the tips section of this blog at left, "Links: Weather, Surveys, Buoys, Tides." They are listed in order from north to south so you can find the one you want quickly. Having the list handy has saved me a few headaches over the years.

Notice the higher than predicted tide, useful to know
Another useful series of links are also given for tide stations that show actual water depth vs predicted water depth. Knowledge of that delta is absolutely essential for getting under the 55 ft (at high tide, supposedly) in the Cape May canal. It's also useful to know when you're navigating a shallow passage. Just look at the nearest actual vs predicted tide station and you can get a feel for how much more or less water you can expect.







Only 3 ft in the channel! There's a way around but you've got to know the waypoints
(they are in the GPX Routes section) 

The Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE) publishes depth surveys of the ICW from Norfolk to Port Royal in South Carolina. Perhaps, someday they will extend the surveys farther south. They cover some extremely interesting stretches of the ICW that tend to shoal year after year. All of the surveys are publicly available but finding the ones of interest is not always easy. I put a list together of all the areas that show shoaling and also the inlets that tend to shoal (but perhaps not yet but you know they will) and gave those links too. There are tons of surveys and they are not easy to plow through to find ones of interest but I've already done that and you'll see a subset of just those showing shoaling now plus the inlets, all with direct links. Clicking down into a nest of links is not required. It may be very helpful to look at the links that you may pass through on a given day to see if there are any updates. It could save your bacon!

I've also included the key weather sites I access multiple times a day for hurricane information and for when I'm making a passage outside or down the Chesapeake. At least it's the ones I've found useful.


Monday, September 18, 2017

Jose, Maria - I'm tired of being a weatherman

This morning, Jose was returning to the New Jersey coast!
This morning the forecasts turned much direr. The winds were up along the coast on Thursday and even getting down the Hudson River would have been problematic with 30 kts winds against the tide. With all that input, we decided to cancel our 9/19 departure date from PYC. Then, of course, everything changed once again. Jose wandered farther east which made all the difference in the impacted forecast for the New Jersey shore. What you see in this summary is the 5:00 pm status of the predictions for Jose, not the much worse tracks of this morning. Perhaps we could have gone but then we may have been stuck in Atlantic City for several days, who knows?
Where or where is Maria going??  Curving out to sea, we hope. Lee appears not to be a threat.

So now we're in a waiting period again and our next checkpoint is after Jose leaves the area; sometime around Saturday, we hope. Nothing is certain anymore and nothing is like the previous years that from our present perspective seem to be child's play although at the time we were on pins and needles. 
The Wind on the left, waves on the right - this is a much better forecast than this morning's. Too late now. 
Likewise for theSwellInfo forecast close to shore

Of course, there's Maria waiting in the wings for her try at disrupting our plans. The models either have her going out to sea (Euro) or impacting North Carolina out banks (US). Anyone for flipping a coin?

Don't forget the Coastal Forecast from NOAA, much better with a forecast of Jose going farther which only came in this afternoon.

Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
614 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017
.THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 
ft.

Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-614 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017
THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to
5 ft.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

(Update on 9/18 at 11:31 am - Projections changed overnight, we are not leaving 9/19 as planned for a 9/21 trip down the New Jersey coast due to a big projected wind and wave increase. Now we sit and wait - full update tonight)

Jose US model, I lost faith in the Euro model after big misses on Irma

Irma drifted a little westward today but the forecast is still a go for us down the coast on 9/21 to Atlantic City. If the forecast holds, we'll leave PYC 9/19 to stage us for the jump down the coast on 9/21 from Atlantic Highlands. Nothing is certain here but so far, so good (or rather, good enough). As long as the winds are behind us and the swells have 10 sec periods or so, I'm fine for the trip.

Maria will cause a problem later, perhaps
Winds on the left, waves on the right for Thursday at 11:00 am. Not as good as yesterday's prediction but good enough
I'm fine as long as the wind is behind me and the waves are off the aft quarter
SwellInfo still good enough
Swells with 8 to 12 sec periods are fine, wind-driven waves are not.

Lastly, the NOAA coastal forecast:
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
631 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017
.THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
631 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017
.THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around
3 ft. 

Hopefully, everything holds true for the next few days.

Irma - not as good but still a go for now

Jose continues to meander around, US model. I've lost faith in the Euro model after
big misses on Irma
Irma drifted a little westward today but the forecast is still a go for us down the coast on 9/21 to Atlantic City. If the forecast holds, we'll leave PYC 9/19 to stage us for the jump down the coast on 9/21 from Atlantic Highlands. Nothing is certain here but so far, so good (or rather, good enough). As long as the winds are behind us and the swells have 10 sec periods or so, I'm fine for the trip.
Maria will be a problem. We'll watch.
Still good for Thursday. Wind on the left, wave heights on the right
Near-in coastal forecast from SwellInfo still is good for Thursday
Finally, the NOAA coastal forecast is in line with the others although it covers farther out, to 20 Nm.
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
631 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017
.THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
631 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017
.THU...N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around
3 ft. 

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Looks like Thursday, 9/21, down the New Jersey coast

Jose US model - farther to the east now
Data from Tropical Tidbits
The projected path of Jose has changed dramatically in the last 24 hours. The path is now predicted to be farther to the east with less effect on the coast. Both the US and Euro models have come into better agreement.

This shows all three storms, from Cyclocane - using US model

Even so, there are two other storms that could affect us on the way south, Maria and Lee. Maria could be a problem if it continues to develop but Lee appears to be headed more to the east. We will take the window afforded by the more easterly course of Jose and get down the coast.

VentuSky has a nice presentation of US model data on wind and waves.



The left chart shows the wind in kts, the right shows wave heights in ft
Both show direction with streaks
The data (based on the US model) above are for Thursday 9/21 at 11:00 am. It doesn't vary much all day. In fact, it looks like we can continue on our way Friday to Cape May and then up the Chesapeake on Saturday with a light wind from the east or southeast and a following tide. We would aim for Chesapeake City and then relook at Maria and Lee.
This is the Thursday forecast for Seaside Heights, about 1/2 way down the
New Jersey coast on the way to Atlantic City - looks good
The forecast is from SwellInfo which I've found to be very accurate close to shore

We plan on getting on Fleetwing Monday and take one last look at the weather Tuesday morning before committing ourselves. The plan would be for Tuesday night at Haverstraw, Wednesday night at Atlantic Highlands with an early morning departure on Thursday for Atlantic City. At least that's the fantasy. It would be nice if it really came true - so far that's what's predicted by the US model so we can hope.

Just to put topping on the forecasts, here's the National Weather Service coastal forecast for two areas along the way:

Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm
THU...N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or
less.

Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
.THU...NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around
3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.

What could possibly go wrong?


Friday, September 15, 2017

Jose - An opening?

(Update, 9/16 at 8:20 am - the tentative opening predicted by the grib files last night appears to be widening and the NHC showed a shift of Jose's tracks to the east this morning. If that holds, we'll go down the NJ coast on Thursday, 9/21 with light winds out of the north and waves less than 2 ft. More details in today's post later tonight)


Jose, US models
There is a pot full of uncertainty in the direction of Jose. Some tracks show a landfall in New Jersey, or Eastern Long Island, or New England, or a path out to sea. Any prediction outside of three days is folly with a storm of this type. A five-day prediction is mostly a guess. For me, it's just wait and see. Grib files did show a tentative window on 9/21 for going down the New Jersery coast with light winds of 10 kts out of the north and 2 to 3 ft waves, all of which was flatly contradicted by the Euro model.
Jose, the Euro model. There's no way to sanely go down the coast with that staring at you

We will sit until Jose is out of the way. There's no future in going down the coast only to run into Jose! If 9/21 does turn out to be a good day down the coast, then we would have to know it by 9/19 since it takes us two days to get down the Hudson River to get into position at Atlantic Highlands for an early morning departure.

Meanwhile, life continues as we hosted Jane and Al Speyer on InSpeyered2 at the Poughkeepsie YC. They are headed north up the Hudson and they stayed over for a couple of days. It's always fun to meet cruising friends. We had a cookout at the club and traded stories on the cruising life.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

PYC - Waiting for Jose to commit itself

Jose, US Model
It is really hard to convince yourself to head south with Jose ahead of you. Add to that concern with some tracks in the US model (and Euro model) that show Jose slamming into the east coast, perhaps at Atlantic City! The ocean is getting churned up by Jose. Several apps show 5 - 8 ft waves on Monday followed by 8 - 10 ft waves on Tuesday. Wednesday shows 4 - 7 ft in the morning subsiding to 4 - 5 ft in the afternoon, all off Seaside Heights which is on the way to Atlantic City. That is just too uncertain for us.

Jose, Euro Models
If we give the ocean Thursday to settle down, we are starting to think Friday will be a good day to go down the coast. The winds are mild and the waves are predicted to be in the 2 to 3 ft range with wind less than 10 kts and with a northerly component. Of course, all of this is really a fantasy given the way weather predictions have gone recently. Nevertheless, we have to hope and maybe Friday, 9/22 will be a good day down the New Jersey coast.

Meanwhile, a couple of "yellow X's" have popped up on the National Hurricane Center site. Hopefully (there's that word again...), they will respond to the turning point of hurricane season and fade away (Ha). People that think we're due for some good luck are not familiar with how probability works! But, I can still hope.

The shoal right in the middle of the channel is growing!
Just to make things more interesting, The ICW is changing. The 9/11/2017 survey of Lockwoods Folly shows that the ICW there is once again shoaling in the channel. It was dredged last year! The route waypoints at GPX Routes (see left column) are still good for Lockwoods Folly. You take a dip route towards the inlet before turning back to the channel. Never a dull moment on the way south.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Irma - Marathon Pictures Arrive

A very sad picture from Marathon by the anchoring and mooring field

The NOAA satellite pictures of Marathon came in today and it tells of devastation in the mooring and anchoring fields at Marathon. The city marina lost the dinghy docks and boats are piled up in the throughway by the office building.
Another view by the bridge leading into Marathon

Many boats dragged off their anchor (just about everyone) and landed on shore or up against the bridge. Less than a handful were successful in staying on their anchor. We're told that out of 266 moorings in all, around 60 managed to stay attached, the rest went ashore. Here's the link to all the satellite pictures. Just zoom in on Marathon to see the detailed pictures from space.
Here's the Marathon City Marina. The Dinghy docks are gone. The fairway has been the scene of boats
piling up from cutting loose from their mooring. 

It's going to be a long time cleaning up. On top of everything else, residents aren't allowed into Marathon yet. Boat owners can now see their boat (many ashore) but can't do anything about it! It has to be devastating.
There are a few troubling paths that weren't there in yesterday's run, landfall potential. 

Meanwhile, Jose keeps churning away in the Atlantic, following its dipsy-dooly path (a  full circle before heading north). The latest projections are not as comforting as yesterday's. They show Jose with a chance to make landfall on some of the spaghetti projections. At the very least, it will churn up the Atlantic and make life miserable for anyone heading south. The Euro model even has Jose making landfall at Atlantic City! The US model has it going out to sea. Who to believe? Wait and see.
Here's the Euro model. More paths that include landfall. Nuts. 

For us, we're still watching Jose a couple of times a day on the projections. We are hoping that it will turn out to sea and speed up just a little. At this rate, we may have to delay our tentative 9/18 departure date from PYC. It takes us two days to get into position at Atlantic Highlands for a run down the coast to Atlantic City. These projections can make you crazy.